Using the Ugandan National Panel Survey (UNPS), I document that (1) farmers face a trade-off between crop yields and crop risk and (2) low-yield, low-risk crops represent the main share of output for poor farmers. Then, I introduce a crop-portfolio choice in an incomplete markets model. When choosing intermediate inputs across the crop portfolio, households weigh the potential trade-off between higher agricultural returns and less consumption smoothing. I calibrate the model to rural Uganda and I find that completing markets increases agricultural productivity by 21.75 percent, with half of the gain resulting from reallocating inputs across farmers and crops, and welfare increases by 28.4 percent.
I study the difference in consumption insurance levels across the quintiles of the consumption, income, and wealth distributions in Uganda. Using nationally representative panel household data (UNPS), I find that poor households present higher levels of consumption insurance than rich households.
Using the UNPS, I find that market access is associated with (1) higher consumption, income, and wealth levels, (2) higher income fluctuations but not higher consumption fluctuations, and (3) higher between counties inequality. Building a toy model based on an Aiyagari model with different locations and a discrete choice of accessing the markets, I find that assuming households can save is sufficient to replicate result (2).